Oil Monthly Forecast - November 2018


Brent crude futures fell $2.24 a barrel to $72.81 a barrel as of 1:26 p.m. EST (1726 GMT), while US futures were down $1.76 a barrel at $63.56. Since the beginning of the week Brent fell by 6.1%, WTI - by 5.8%.

Saudi Arabia would also raise its daily crude oil output to 11 million barrels from 10.7 million barrels and the country has a capacity to generate 12 million barrels of crude oil each day, according to Al-Falih.

The WTI Crude Oil market fell significantly during the trading session on Tuesday after gapping lower, breaking below the major uptrend line. The U.S. has agreed to let eight countries - including Japan, India and South Korea - keep buying Iranian oil after it reimposes sanctions this weekend to prevent a spike in prices, a senior administration official said. Crude Oil price could turn range bound in week ahead as investors now patiently wait to observe impact of United States sanctions on Iranian crude oil and updates on Sino-U.S. trade related talks as positive outcome would be good for Crude oil since China is the biggest importer of Crude oil in the world.

A list of all countries getting USA waivers allowing them to import Iranian oil is expected to be released officially on Monday, industry sources say.

Despite the surge in output, concerns lingered as Washington is set to impose its sanctions against Iran's petroleum exports from next week.

"We still expect that the global oil market will be in deficit in 4Q18", the USA bank said.

Crude oil futures were lower as of mid-morning Tuesday as market participants appeared to be positioning themselves for an inventory build-up once data is released later Tuesday by API, and then Wednesday by the EIA.

New data released on Wednesday from the US Energy Information Administration showed a drop in USA fuel stockpiles, as crude oil inventories rose.

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With so much oil on the market, the investment bank is now predicting oil prices to fall to US$65 a barrel by the end of 2019.

As sanctions take effect, buyers for Iran's crude will dry up.

"There are two downward pressures on global oil demand growth".

Oil is also under pressure from rising output by the world's biggest producers, Russia, the USA and Saudi Arabia, which are helping to replenish global oil inventories after more than a year of stock draws.

On Thursday, oil prices rose as investors were encouraged by a strong rebound in the USA stock markets.

New U.S. sanctions on Iran begin on November 4 and Washington has made it clear to Tehran's customers that it expects them to stop buying any Iranian crude oil from that date.

Thus, the cost of the futures on Brent crude rose by 0.63%.

But oil supply from other countries is rising.