Hurricane Michael European Model Shows Storm Intensifying


"#HurricaneMichael isn't heading to any one town.", the National Weather Service tweeted Monday. He specifically pointed to forecasts of 8-12 feet of storm surge that could reach miles in from shore.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami is tracking Tropical Storm Michael, which formed from a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

The speed of the storm barreling toward the Florida Panhandle - Michael was moving north-northwest at 12 miles per hour (19 kph) - was among the hazards worrying forecasters at the National Hurricane Center on Tuesday morning. The designation means tropical storm force winds (39 to 73 mph) are expected in the area within 48 hours.

Parts of Florida's curvy Big Bend could see up to 12 feet (3.7 meters) of storm surge, while Michael also could dump up to a foot (30 centimeters) of rain over some Panhandle communities as it moves inland, forecasters said.

Thursday: A cold front pushes the remnants of Michael to the east and winds strengthen behind the cold front. According to the hurricane center, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center of Michael, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Thousands of Florida residents have been ordered to leave their homes as Hurricane Michael heads for the state's coast. Storm surge recedes by Thursday afternoon.

A hurricane warning was in effect for a more than 300-mile (480-km) stretch of coastline from the Florida-Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida. A Tropical Storm watch is in effect for from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island and Tampa Bay.

"A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael".

On the Florida Panhandle, Escambia County Sheriff David Morgan bluntly advised residents who choose to ride out the storm that first responders would not be able to reach them during or immediately after Michael smashes into the coast.

So the damage footprint of hurricane Michael will be very different and aside from the threat posed by a Category 3 landfall and storm surge the impacts inland from wind damage could be much more significant than seen with recent Florence.

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"This storm can kill you", Scott said.

"Everybody's got to get ready".

Either way, residents should "be prepared like you would with any approaching storm", he said. "We're going to get storm surge, we have wind, we have a chance of flooding, we have a significant chance of tornadoes".

Areas likely to be hardest hit include the Crestview-Fort Walton Beach area, Panama City and Florida's state capital, Tallahassee.

In Florida, state offices, schools and universities were set to close on Tuesday through the end of the week in panhandle counties.

In neighbouring Alabama, Governor Kay Ivey declared an emergency for the entire state on Monday in anticipation of wind damage, heavy rains and power outages.

"We are running out of time", Scott said in a post on Twitter.

The advisories for Hurricane Michael as of October 9, 2018. A warning for the coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, was canceled late Monday.

Michael is not expected to be a reprise of Florence, which pummeled the state for several days, producing record rainfall and river flooding, and has been blamed on 40 deaths in the state.

A hurricane hunter plane that bounced into the swirling eye off the western tip of Cuba found wind speeds rising. Residents also stocked up on food, water and gas.