"The U.S.is set to put its stamp on global oil markets for the next five years", the IEA said in its latest monthly report.
As a result, by 2023 the level of spare production capacity that could be used in the event of a disruption will be the lowest since 2007.
However, shale's surge in the last year was heavy on the minds at the Houston conference, particularly as USA production surged to an all-time record late last year.
Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouel, the United Arab Emirates oil minister and OPEC's current president, said on Sunday that the oil cartel has not discussed rolling over production cuts until next year. Prices are less than half that today.
The IEA expects global oil demand to increase by 6.9m bpd by 2023 to 104.7m bpd, with China driving demand growth.
The U.S. will dominate global oil markets for years to come, satisfying 80 percent of global demand growth to 2020, the IEA said.
Abhishek Kumar, senior energy analyst at Interfax Energy's Global Gas Analytics in London, said comments about "Venezuela's deteriorating oil-production profile, together with prospects for strong compliance with the OPEC-led output-cut agreement, (were) supportive of oil prices".More news: Manchester United midfielder Scott McTominay chooses to play for Scotland over England
Industry sentiment is indeed improving along with rising prices, but major oil companies are reluctant to invest vastly higher sums. The energy group's director, Fatih Birol, said the study assumed oil prices around $60 a barrel, which is just below the current worldwide benchmark price of $65.64 a barrel. Adding in some 4.7 million barrels a day of other liquids, USA liquids production is expected to total almost 17 million barrels a day. That's an average annual growth rate of about 1.2 million barrels a day, little changed from last year's forecast.
OPEC has squeezed production enough to drive prices up - benchmark crude has roughly doubled since bottoming in early 2016.
Speculators raised their bullish bets on U.S. crude futures and options in the week to February 27 for the second consecutive week, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
The agency said the pipeline constraints have increased the forward discount for Canadian production, adding US$3.75 a barrel in 2018 and US$2 a barrel in 2019 to the forward differential curve between Western Canadian Select and WTI since its last report a year ago.
Birol said, however, that his group sees no sign that demand for fossil fuels will peak - or even plateau - in the next five years.